9.08.2006

2006 NFL Predictions Week 1 (and some college)

I've been reading just about every single article that comes out of ESPN.com about the NFL. There are a lot of guys coming up with top 100 lists of things that will and will not happen throughout the year, guys making predictions for the playoffs and superbowl, and guys making weekly predictions. Personally, I feel like Bill Simmons needs to be picked on. I think this guy is pretty much a total douche, as he is the one who is quoted below as saying that Kobe's career is "an arc of disappointment."

However, a couple of weeks ago he finally made a nice post on ESPN's Page 2, and I've been giving him a bit more slack of late. Every once and a while I'll actually agree with something he says and thus, I've been a bit more receptive to his columns. Today was just another day though, as he made his week one predictions. I like that the guy never stands on the fence, but it just sucks that he's a friggin' DOLT.

I'm not going to throw in figures against the spread as he does, but I will tell you who's going to win and why. Granted, this is week 1, and we have only seen very tiny bits of complete team performances in the preseason. New players, new coaches, new schemes will mean that things are going to be a bit harder to predict starting out...

but things only get easier from here.

Yesterday's opening game featured the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Miami Dolphins. I will be honest here and tell you that I picked the Dolphins to win. Being that Ben Roethlisberger was out after having emergency appendectomy surgery, I figured that Charlie Batch couldn't hold up the slack and the Dolphins' D would really take it to him. Much to my surprise, Batch looked GREAT, and may have earned himself a solid look as a struggling team's first-string QB for next year.

I thought that Daunte Culpepper would have been much better with the Dolphins who came in with a real hot streak at the end of last season. Ronnie Brown played well, but the offense really didn't get going, and that's what I was relying on in my prediction. Anyway, I'm 0-1.

Atlanta @ Carolina
Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn will face one of the league's best defenses here--if not THE best--and will struggle. The Falcons' league leading rushing offense the last two years will do some damage to wear down Carolina, but Jake Delhomme and company will prove to score a bit more often and will win this game rather comfortably.

The X-Factor is Steve Smith and his two hamstring injuries. If he does not play, Carolina will have a bit harder of a time scoring, but Jake always seems to find a way into the endzone, and can do so with Keyshawn Johnson.

Carolina wins, 28-17

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
This is one of the most exciting matchups of the week and honestly, probably the hardest to predict. There are too many new things for each team and too many new possible ways for things to go down.

Tampa is beginning its first season with young Chris Simms at the helm, although he has some solid game-starting experience from last year. Michael Clayton, their #2 WR, is healthy again and can provide a punch to the offense. Cadillac Williams starts the season healthy again and has massive potential for a huge year.

However, the Baltimore defense is still around and is still creating fear in handicappers' minds. Ray Lewis, their star LB, is back from injury and plans to fill any holes left in the defensive line. This game is going to be a close one, and a tough defensive battle, because both teams have perennial powerhouse defenses. Baltimore's has more of a question mark looming because of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis' problems last season. I would venture to say that they'll be ready.

On the other side of the ball, Steve McNair is now the QB for Baltimore and he brings with him a serious resume. Co-MVP two years ago, there is no doubt that McNair knows how to run an offense. He is reuinting with his favorite WR in Tennessee in Derrick Mason, and there should be immediate chemistry. The running game? Jamal Lewis is back, and not in a contract year, but no one seems to have faith that he'll do well this year. Mike Anderson is his backup, somone that I have a lot of respect for, although he remains quiet on fantasy football draft boards.

This game is a toss-up really, and I still don't know who to go with even as of this moment.

Tampa Wins a defensive gutbuster, 17-16.

Buffalo at New England
Tom Brady doesn't have his star WR in Deion Branch because he's in a contract duel with the Patriots' front office. It won't matter though, as Brady spreads the ball like no other quarterback in the league. He'll find Belichick in the endzone if he needs to.

Willis McGahee will probably do well for Buffalo along side of J.P. Losman and Lee Evans. They'll keep it close for the first quarter but New Englad will pull away and leave Foxboro with Brady donning a massive smile. He'll call Deion after the game and tell him to sign for cheap because they don't need him.

New England wins comfortably 38-17

Cincinnati @ Kansas City
I can't wait for this one. Carson Palmer is returning from massive knee surgery and based on what I saw in his first preseason game, there is nothing for the Bengal-nation to worry about. People keep bringing up the off-field problems that the team has had with arrests and legal troubles, but I think they're all for not, and the Bengals will have a great season again. This time Kemo Von Olhoffen won't be around to tear more ligaments. The Bengals are one of my major contenders for a superbowl bid. (I will not make that prediction until mid-season, however)

Kansas City features an old QB with a steady arm, all the while throwing for 4,000 yards every friggin' season. He's a quiet one, but always gets the job done. Trent has the league's most feared back in Larry Johnson standing behind him; Yes Sean Alexander, I said MOST feared. Johnson will have a major year and will most likely have a great game, but Kansas City just can't keep up with the Bengals and lose a heartbreaker shootout.

Cinci 40 KC 37

Denver @ St. Louis
The biggest "sleeper" team hitting up all the pages of ESPN and CBS recently is...

THE ST. LOUIS RAMS!?!?! Are you f*cking kidding me? I swear to God these columnists don't know their asses from a hole in the ground. The Rams MAY improve and MAY win a more games than expected, but they CANNOT-- CAN NOT--win the division. There are too many other GOOD, PROVEN teams in the NFC to take away wildcard spots and therefore, the Rams cannot make the playoffs. CAN NOT. As in, NOT GONNA HAPPEN. There, I'm done with that bullshit "sleeper" talk.

The Rams will have the turf advantage, but Denver is a better team on both sides of the ball and it will show.

Denver 29 St. Louis 24

New Orleans @ Cleveland
The Reggie Bush show begins this week, and the nation's eyes will be watching. I'm honestly up in arms as to what to expect from him, but I'd lean on the successful side versus the not-so. I know I sit on the fence a bunch more than these ESPN writers, but I'm not getting paid to be a goat, so I can cover my ass a bit.

Reggie will soon realize that he's not quite as fast at the pro level as he was in college but should go for a TD in this game. Deuce McAllister's knee will be the true indicator of his rushing success this year, but lining up in the slot with Drew Brees throwing to him will prove to be quite effective for the Saints. Their porous defense will prove to be problematic though, and they will struggle to pull this game off. Luckily, Cleveland is starting Charlie Frye, and I don't think anyone expects a 250 yard passing performance. Rueben Droughns will get his yards be won't find the endzone more than once.

This game is another one that is tough to call, but being that the Saints have SOME superstars and the Browns have ONE, in Willie McGinnest (who can't score, unfortunately).

I'll go with N'Alins, 22-12

N.Y. Jets @ Tennessee Titans
One word... BOOOOOORRRRRINNNGGGGG.

The Jets have a SOMEWHAT solid defense but no running game and a VERY suspect passing attack. Tennessee has a better, well-established coach, and a backup QB running an offense until Vince Young is ready. I actually think Volek has nice skills, from what I saw of him in a backup role when McNair would go down. The Titans don't have much of a running attack either, and this game is a sleeper/punt-fest. The Titan fans will be screaming "We Want Vince," even though they'll win the game.

Tennessee 18 Jets 10

Philadelphia @ Houston
Two eras begin in this game: The McNabb Post-T.O. Era, and the Mario Williams #1 Pick? Era.

Mario will do well, but probably not get a sack because Donovan can shed tacklers so well. Williams may never prove to be worth a number one pick, especially considering they do not have a running back and should have signed Reggie anyway. He'll have a great career though, but his skills will not affect this game.

Donovan, on the other hand, will prove to everyone that he's still a solid quarterback and pro-bowler, even though I think he needs an accuracy check. He'll spread the ball, move around, and keep the Texans' suspect defense on their heels for a comfortable victory.

Philly 35 Houston 20

Seattle @ Detroit
This is the surefire LOCK OF THE WEEK. Seattle hits the comfortable turf of Detroit and runs, literally, all over the Detroit defense, bringing Matt Millen one game closer to being fired. Detroit's offense will improve with Mike Martz calling the plays but no team with John Kitna, sorry I'm not jumping on that wagon, at the helm will make a run. Seattle was a deserving Super Bowl contender last year and will be again this year.

Hasslebeck has proved that he's a star QB with the brains to run a successful offense. Nothing needs to be said about the skills of Sean Alexander, but he is still not as feared as he should be. (Thus, my LJ remark above.) No knock on SA, but defenses don't talk about him the way they do about LT and LJ....

although they should.

Seattle wins big and rests the starters in the 4th. 41-21

Chicago @ Green Bay
Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, oh how ye should have retired. I love the guy, despite the fact that he's destroyed my team's playoff hopes many-a-season, but his team doesn't have a chance this year.

Chicago's defense is too ridiculous for GB to win this game, even though they'll be at home and everyone is picking them as the upset pick of the week. Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will get plenty of yards and keep Favre and his recently interception-happy arm off the field long enough to claim a close victory.

Rex Grossman will look poor, and they'll be talking "QB Controversy" in Chicago as of Monday morning.

Lovie, just put in Griese right now. He will be the reason you have any chance of winning the division at all. Rex = Heath Schuler.

Bears 20 Packers 13

Dallas @ Jacksonville
This may be the game to watch this week, despite a lot of good matchups in the AFC.

Dallas has a great team and a great coach and should do a lot of damage to a lot of teams. The thing that I'm wondering, is why the hell isn't anyone talking about them? Everyone is waiting for TO to explode, but I have a feeling he won't derail the 'Boys this year despite a couple mid-season flairups. Everyone is ragging on Bledsoe, but there is one thing that he can do, and that is throw touchdowns. Terrell Owens will have a big year and have a big game here, despite missing so much practice. The Jax defense will hold their own as best they can against a solid Dallas offense but I believe their offense will fall short of the endzone too often against a very fast Cowboys defense.

Julius Jones doesn't amaze, but neither does Fred Taylor or Marcedes Lewis. Drew, Terry, and Terrell handle this one.

Dallas 35 Jacksonville 26

San Francisco @ Arizona
Oh damn, here comes Mr. Biased with his biased, "I Love the 49ers More Than Anything" analysis, right? Maybe.

I can talk about the potential for this game all day, but you've already read too much. The 49ers are going to improve, and have already improved. Everyone says we're the worst team in the league again, and ESPN has us at the bottom of their Power Rankings list. We will prove them all wrong and win 6 games this year. Yeah, SIX. And can you believe it? I'm HAPPY ABOUT THAT!

The only team to have never lost a Super Bowl, the team that carried me through my childhood... will win 6 games and please the everloving shit out of me.

Norv Turner will get Frank Gore yards, Alex Smith will show everyone that he DOES have the talent of a stud QB, although he will MOST DEFINITELY struggle this year and throw quite a few INTs. Vernon Davis will be a stud, but won't produce that much. Antonio Bryant and Alex will have a deep touchdown hookup in this game and will definitely give Arizona a run for thier money.

The problem: The 49ers have ZERO pass rush. If we don't get to Kurt Warner, he will pick one of his two Pro-Bowl wide receivers and lead them all over the field. Edgerrin will run well against us and our defense will finally get the ridicule it deserves. Last year, our D got picked on, but really they were the only reason we ever had a chance. The offense couldn't get a first down. This year, we'll get SOME first downs, but it won't be enough to dominate any games and we'll rely on a defense that can't sack the quarterback to keep us close enough.

We CAN win this game though, but I have a feeling that Arizona will win their home opener in their new AMAZING stadium.

Pride prevails however, 49ers 26 Arizona 23. (Just like the Schwam, baby)

The Manning Bowl
It must be really nice for Archie Manning to know that both of his sons are amazing professional quarterbacks. But then again, it must suck knowing that he was one of the WORST IN HISTORY.

The Brothers Manning will most definitely put on a show Sunday night and the game will be a must-see. The winner will have to have a balanced rushing attack and the better defensive performance. I could see either team winning. Tiki Barber will do well, and Edgerri---oh shit... there's your X-Factor.

Who will the Colts run with? The answer... it doesn't matter. Peyton can have zero rushing attack and have all the DBs in the world watching his eyes and still throw 3 TDs. I don't think it will be quite as easy this year, and they WILL NOT win the super bowl, but Peyton can still make this happen.

The Colts defense should be a bit better than New York's, but that doesn't mean that they can not stay in the game. Eli will be outperformed by his brother, but thank God for Tiki.

Giants 33 Colts 28

Minnesota @ Washington
It was just announced that Clinton Portis will not start. It wouldn't have mattered. This is my upset pick of the week. Brad Johnson gets it done against Joe Gibbs' BORING style of football that only remotely works because his quarterback is almost as old as he is. Minnesota is on the rise--KIND OF-- and will pull this game off.

Brad Johnson is at the end of a lot of my QB jokes but the fact of the matter is that the guy gets the job done. Chester Taylor will perform well against an overrated Washington defense who should have never gotten rid of LaVar Arrington. Sorry Joe, stick to NASCAR or come back to the NFL when they decide to limit the number of yards a team can gain per carry.

Vikings 27 Washington 14

San Diego @ Oakland
I think every expert on ESPN.com picked San Diego. They're the better team, the Raiders are quite shitty--not as shitty as everyone makes them out to be, however--and LaDanian Tomlinson will run all over Oakland. You know, they're probably right. LaDanian is good for 3 scores but Aaron Brooks silences a lot of critics and gets 2 TDs from Randy Moss. Philip Rivers will thank his lucky stars that he has LT in the backfield as he will look like an assclown for the majority of this game. The Raider D gets a false sense of hope, but in the end should realize that ALL rookie QBs HAVE to struggle in this game.

Rivers is a lame duck, but LT can carry. Gates does mediocre because Rivers is a baby. San Diego wins a squeaker and realizes that they shoulda kept Drew Brees after he spreads the ball well against Cleveland.

San Diego 29 Oakland 24


Now for a couple college games:

UCLA will not cover the 27.5 point spread over Rice but we will surely win this game comfortably. Ben Olsen continues to wow and actually gets us on the ESPN highlight reels this week.
****UPDATE**** Upon further review, UCLA will surely beat Rice by more than 27.5
I do not know what I was thinking but my Bruins will surely dominate this game on both sides of the ball.

Original Prediction: UCLA 40 Rice 25

New Prediction: UCLA 52 Rice 20

Notre Dame has the toughest schedule of any team in the nation, and it surprises me that people are picking them to win the National Championship. Sorry Charlie, it just can't happen. They will continue to get smoke blown up their asses this week though, with a solid win over Penn State who truly misses Michael Robinson.
ND 28 PSU 17

California continues to disappoint and BARELY beats Minnesota this week. The Bears are a joke, sorry guys.
Min 24 Cal 27

And for the barn-burner... #1 Ohio State @ #2 Texas.
There hasn't been a more anticipated college football game since... well, since the National Championship last year, but anyway.. it's a big game.

I'm a massive Ohio State fan and I have massive amounts of respect for both coaches in this affair. Ohio State lost a lot on defense to the NFL draft last year, and Texas only lost Vince Young. Sorry Horns, but that will prove to be the bigger loss. Ohio State disrupts Colt McCoy enough to ensure that their prolific scoring attack with Troy Brown (McNabb with an Real Arm... you'll see), and Ginn Jr. Ohio State stays number 1 and wins in a GREAT game.
OSU 47 Texas 36

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