Week 1 Wrap/5 Things
WEEK 1 SCORE:
Five Things I Got Way Wrong
5. Forgetting about Jacksonville and Jack Del Rio. Granted, they surely aren't making a bid for defensive performance of the week, but they most definitely reminded everyone that they're a damn good football team. The worst part is that I knew it! I knew that Del Rio would have a solid defense, that Leftwich can be a winning quarterback in the NFL, and that Fred Taylor isn't quite as fragile as the fantasy world makes him out to be. I guess I totally whiffed on this one, and banked on the new-and-improved Dallas offense to make the Jags wish they were playing the Titans. What a mistake that was. Dallas DID put up 17 points, but I really believe that they're a top tier team and 17 points should be a given every single week. Needless to say, I should have NEVER picked Dallas to put up 35, let alone on the road at Jacksonville. See more below.
4. In predicting scores, somehow I totally forgot everything I've learned about scoring in the NFL. It must have been the hours of college football and massive amount of anticipation for Ohio State vs. Texas, even all the analysis of those stupid SC kids across town. For whatever reason, I assumed that NFL teams would be putting up a lot of points this week, and no one did. This is no aberration either, NFL teams just DON'T score that much. Occaisionally a team will put up 40 or so, but when it does, NFL Primetime (which sucks now, by the way) is like... "WHOOOAAAAAAA! FORTY POINTS!"
I can't believe I forgot about that, and it was pathetic of me to suggest that New England, Cincinnati, Seattle, Dallas, Philadelphia, and New York (G) would score over 30 points. Of course, leave it to MY Niners to be the only team to give up more than 30. Hey, at least we kept up. No excuses, but the score predicting needs to improve.
3. The Oakland/San Diego Game. What a shame it is to re-read my blog and see that I said that the Raiders would put up more of a fight than anyone expected. In reality, they put up less of a fight than anyone expected. I made the horrible assumption that the Raider offense would at least be able to move the ball, then on top of that, I predicted that they would actually score! What a fool I am. Seriously though, how bad was their offensive line? They're young, they're talented, but they SUCK! NINE SACKS?!?!? Count them... 1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9... I mean, Aaron Brooks can't count much higher. Neither can Randy Moss or Al Davis for that matter. The Raiders might truly be the worst team in the league, but nobody goes 0-16... too bad for those couple of teams that lose to the Raiders this year. Talk about a bubble-burster.
Philip Rivers surely did not look like an "assclown" as I predicted. Marty Schottenheimer sure did a great job of ensuring that Rivers would not have to take too many chances and limited him to 11 attempts. Foolish me, I didn't even consider the possibility that the Chargers could just hand the ball to L.T. all night and have Rivers do as little as possible. Either way, he's still going to struggle, and when he looks back, he'll be thankful that his first game was against these Raiders.
2. Thinking that New England and Denver would be good based on past performance and coaching staff. Obviously one cannot expect Tom Brady to get sacked on the first play, fumble, and have it returned for a touchdown. That will mess with any coach's gameplan, even the honorable Mr. Belichick. The Patriots pulled it out though, and at least I got to add them into my lowly win column. But what the hell was I thinking? That without Deion Branch the Patriots would have a solid WR corps in TROY BROWN and RECHE CALDWELL? That Corey Dillon is as good as he was in Cinci? No, it was probably that I knew who New England's QB was and didn't think beyond that. It won't happen again.
Don't get me wrong, I think Jake Plummer is quite suspect as a legitimate contender's QB, but he was running all over the place on Sunday. The Rams defensive line was absolutely ridiculous on that turf, and I think Michael Vick would have had a rough day behind that line. Give Jake some credit, he'll improve. So, I underestimated the Rams defensive line. I knew that Bulger would play well, that Holt would play well, and that Steven Jackson would play well. I guess I overlooked the defense, as they were the real reason the Rams won. Denver's defense was impressive mind you, as they refused to allow Jake's 3 INTs to turn into touchdowns. Yay for Jeff Wilkins, but I'm still not jumping on the Rams bandwagon, even if Seattle continues to look lethargic against mediocre teams. Denver is still a good team and will do well, but they better not think they're going to run over everyone like last year. Assumptions, assumptions... stupid me.
1. As I say this, I still do not know if I believe it, but I should not have made Seattle my "LOCK OF THE WEEK." Would anyone have argued with me, however? When you all read it, was there even a second guess to my statement that Seattle would run over Detroit and that Sean Alexander, Matt Hasslebeck, and Darrell Jackson would be wearing baseball hats in the 4th quarter? Probably not. But maybe there's more to this "Superbowl Loss Hangover." Maybe Seattle is going to have a terrible year and they only got lucky with a one field goal victory because the Lions are that bad.
I don't really believe any of that crap, but Seattle sure as hell looked weak. I don't want to hear any of this Steve Hutchinson crap either, losing ONE GUARD does not make you a shitty football team by any standard, no matter how good "Hutch" is. (And he is damn good, by the way) I think that Seattle was going into that game with the same mentality that I had in predicting the game; they were the better team and deserved to win. To borrow from Chris Berman, "that's why they play the games." Seattle will improve with this wake-up call however, and I still think they're a lock to win the West, unless the Niners trade for Julius Peppers and Osi Umenyeora tomorrow. :D
Five Things that Saved My Reputation
5. The Bengals Jail Drama. I told you all that the Bengals would return to form with Carson at the helm. Carson didn't even have that amazing of a game, and the defense really clamped down on a solid Kansas City team with a lot of weapons. Granted, knocking out Trent Green didn't hurt, but I don't think that KC was going to win this game. Marvin Lewis most definitely has a hold on this team and the legal troubles will not prove to be anything more than an example of overused and overexposed media, even in the sports world. This just in, the Bengals are for real... and Marvin Lewis deserves a ton of credit for it. Had Carson thrown for 300 and 3 TDs, I most definitely would be giving him more of the credit, but the team is a good one either way. Watch out for Cincinnati in January people.
4. Brett Favre Should Have Retired or Left Green Bay. Brett's "this is the most talented team I've ever been on," quote is easily a lock for making the Darwin Awards this year. I'll give you that Chicago really does have a nasty defense, and I'll give you that Brett Favre is pushing 40, but a shutout, in Green Bay? Go ahead, explain that to me.
I'm waiting.
The fact of the matter is that Green Bay's defensive and offensive combination (especially with Moron McCarthy running the offense) just cannot sustain a close game. Brett just cannot end up on the field with a lead or any sort of comfort, and therefore will always be rushing throws or trying to do more than he should/can. Not to mention the fact that his offensive line has him running scared all day. Brett tries too hard and will continue to throw interceptions and will continue to lose. Sorry Brett, go to a team that needs a quarterback and nothing else.
3. The One Game I Really Pinned Down. After all those games where I was giving you scores that could substitute for Ohio State vs. Miami of Ohio, Texas vs. North Texas, or Troy vs. Miami (oh wait... not that one!), I only missed the final score on this one by a combined 4 points! I'm proud of that, but more proud of the fact that I knew Reggie Bush would make the Houston Texans eat their words.
Please understand that I'm not trying to jump on the Reggie Bush bandwagon here people. I was probably the one guy in the nation who would have started an Anti-Reggie Bush Club last year and make every meeting. Unfortunately for the pain I suffered as a Bruin at the hands (or feet) of Reggie Bush the past three years goes all for not, and I must admit that Reggie truly is an amazing football player. At least I knew it and at least I called it in this one. Brees, Bush, and McCallister will prove to be a dynamic trio and will cause a lot of problems for some of the better teams in the league. Rookie of the year people.
2. Brad "YEAAA... MOTHERF**KER!!" Johnson. (This is what he was screaming in that footage on ESPN after the TD pass) What were my exact words from last week? "He gets the job done." Does he ever! I thought that the Redskins would look worse than they did, but that just goes to show you how many props Johnson deserves! He took a new offense against a solid defense and literally took them all over the field. He didn't make any stupid throws, made no mistakes, and literally kept the game within reach when his kicker couldn't make an extra point. Mind you, this game would have been over a lot earlier if Longwell would have been able to put that first extra point through the uprights. Instead, the kicking game made it a bit harder and Brad had to lead the team down the field AGAIN, for a final scoring drive that would lead to a victory. Upset of the week comes through... that should count as two points.
1. Alex Smith and the 49ers. You knew it was coming, didn't you? I told you that the 49ers could give Arizona a run for their money in that $455 million stadium. People have been talking a lot of shit about Alex and the Niners in the offseason, and I hope they're all understanding that the boy can throw the ball. Yes, I can call him boy because he's younger than me. Our defense couldn't stop Arizona to save our lives, but that kid, with the aid of Norv Turner and Frank Gore, kept us in the game. We were down by 10 with 6 minutes left or so, and had charged down to the AZ 16 yard line. 3rd and 2, and the 2nd year QB tosses to the rookie Vernon Davis, who drops the ball. We end up missing the field goal.
All I'm saying is that with a bit more help, Smith could have very well won that game. We still came down to the fated Hail Mary at the end, although that never works in the NFL.
Just give the guy some credit, and give me some credit for telling you all, even through my biased, 9er loving teeth. Alex Smith will be a star QB in this league, and the Niners will be a playoff contending franchise within 3 years. Nolan has us headed in the right direction. It isn't going to be too happy of a year unless improvement is considered though.
5 Observations, Random As They May Be
5. Baltimore is Going to Be Really Good. McNair wasn't even the major factor in that game, but when it comes down to needing some offense, he will be there. The defense is back, so watch out. I can see this team stealing some victories from Pittsburgh, Cinci, Jax.
4. The AFC is still better than the NFC. I can't believe I almost forgot. I banked on the Giants improving enough to take out a Colts team that didn't have a running game (and they still don't!), and they could not get the job done. It will be another AFC Superbowl this year.
3. The Eagles are good again and will contend with Dallas and New York for the NFC East Championship. After Sunday, I really wonder if Dallas can pull it off, but T.O. and Julius Jones can certainly rack up points. The tough defenses will give them trouble.
Granted, The Eagles played the Texans, but they're not as bad as their name connotates. The Giants are solid with Tiki and continual improvement from Eli, but all of these teams can trade victories at home. Somehow I feel the Eagles can matchup better with non-conference teams. Watchout though, this IS A TOUGH division, Bill Simmons.
2. New Orleans is ready for the future. Brees, Bush, Colston (WHO? Look him up.), Payton. 'Nuff said.
1. The Atlanta Falcons are your sleeper. Perennially knocking on the door with the talented Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn, Atlanta may just have what it takes to get there this year. Mora Jr. runs that defense really well and is smart enough to know that you need to run, run, run to have success in this league. He does nothing short of that and with a bit more pocket presence and passing execution from Vick, the Falcons can fly with any team, pun intended. From what I saw against a very good Carolina defense that was apparently unprepared, Vick has improved, and will make the playoffs. Watch out NFC East, these guys might be able to run all over your slower paced action. (I neglected to mention the North for offensive reasons, and the Seahawks because they were absolutely pathetic and need to show me they're ready to get back to the big dance.)
Observation 1a. (I TOTALLY FORGOT ABOUT THIS, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT!) Did you see how friggin' amazing the Redskins Cheerleaders are? Usually NFL cheerleaders are pretty fine, but after being linked to the Arizona cheerleaders by an ESPN columnist, I was disappointed. After watching MNF, I was quite excited. There were some mighty fine ladies in that nasty maroon and yellow. Also, the Redskins win for having the craziest stadium... did you hear how loud that place was? There were 90,000 people there! Holy bajeezus, that's home field advantage. Didn't hurt Brad Johnson though, did it?
How 'Bout Them BUCKEYES!?!?
4-0 for my highly selective college picks last week, although the Bruins looked terrible, and Minnesota didn't put up the fight for all 4 quarters. Cal is still overrated, just like Texas.
Buckeyes undefeated, National Champs.
See you later in the week with some real predictions for Week 2. I'll get 10 of 'em right at least.
TJ

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